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Driven by Middle East war disruptions, global aluminum supply chains are reshaping. Aluminum production drops in nations like the UAE and Qatar have created the largest supply shock in decades, sending London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices above US$3,600 per ton. Citigroup expects prices to reach US$4,000 per ton soon due to low inventories.

Consequently, Chinese manufacturers are absorbing huge overseas transfer orders. China’s aluminum exports rose by 15.4% to 598,000 tons in April, with 2.05 million tons for the first four months.

New demand from AI liquid-cooling data centers, electric vehicles, and energy storage also drives this growth.

Nevertheless, rising aluminum export volumes trigger severe global trade frictions. Developed economies have increased aluminum import tariffs up to 50%, and EU anti-dumping duties on products such as aluminum foil have reached up to 136.3%. With these trade remedy measures becoming regular challenges, Chinese industry chambers face hundreds of legal cases, posing long-term risks.